Numlock Sunday: Mixing pop and politics with YouGov
By Walt Hickey
I always don’t know what to do around election time with Sunday editions, but I was talking to the folks at YouGov and they offered Numlock an exclusive on a survey that, based on my pop culture fascination, was right up our alley.
Please enjoy this exclusive poll!
Pollster YouGov conducted a poll of 1,167 Americans to ask them how exactly they think various characters from television, movies, and more would handle the 2024 election. From Liz Lemon of 30 Rock to Archie Bunker of All in the Family, it’s a fascinating look at how people perceive the values of people from popular culture, and weigh it against the various matters weighing on the election.
Some of these are clear; by sheer temperament, Leslie Knope (Parks and Recreation) is gonna back Harris (margin of 68) and casino magnate and investor Biff Tannen (Back to the Future) is gonna back Trump (46 point margin).
Elaine Benes (Seinfeld), a New Yorker for whom access to contraception has been a spongeworthy concern, and Olivia Pope (Scandal), a DC-based government and communications worker, they’re clearly team Harris; career naval officer Pete “Maverick” Mitchell (Top Gun) and New York-area suburban small business owner Tony Soprano (The Sopranos) are classic pillars of the Trump coalition.
Liz Lemon (30 Rock) backed Harris, Jack Donaghy is softly for Trump, and while not polled I can only assume Dennis Duffy wrote in RFK Jr.
Propane salesman Hank Hill (King of the Hill) is a dead-to-rights Trump guy. I will say, downballot I do think there’s a chance he doesn’t vote for Ted Cruz. We did not bother polling the other residents of Arlen, Texas, as Peggy keeps it secret, Boomhauer doesn't vote, Bill forgets to, and Dale Gribble cannot vote at this time owing to legal ramifications from his actions on January 6, 2021.
Tony Stark (Iron Man) skews slightly Trump, which does jive with the general disposition of billionaire military contractors this race. Bruce Wayne (Batman) is perceived to be a bit more measured, which makes sense, given the inherent conflict between Bruce Wayne being a suburbanite fanatically obsessed with urban crime, but also Bruce Wayne being staunchly YIMBY, provided the thing you’re installing in his back yard is a Bat Cave.
Interestingly, each party thinks The Joker is voting for the other party’s candidate. This is wrong; The Joker, like Wario, is a libertarian.
Captain America, Steve Rodgers is seen as split, which, I don’t know, FDR was pulling 60 percent of the deployed WWII soldier vote, but the people have spoken. Peter Parker, a media worker who lives in Queens, is firm Harris, as is Miles Morales.
Deadpool is an independent. Wolverine is Canadian, and was thus not polled.
But what does this mean for the election? What conclusion can we draw?
Well, nothing, but that doesn’t mean we can’t try.
There are obviously a lot of fascinating edge cases that are worthy of study here.
For instance, Bella Swan (Twilight) is a working-class white woman with a high school education in an exurb who has experienced first-hand difficulties during a pregnancy. Now that’s the precise kind of voter that Harris has been trying to flip away from the GOP, and a majority think that she’d vote for Harris.
On the other hand, Rocky Balboa (Rocky) is a blue collar Philadelphia white man who works on the docks. Since the construction of the New Deal coalition this has been the mainstream of the Democratic party, but it’s also the exact kind of voter Trump has been attempting to peel off; surveyed Americans think he pulls that off, even if Apollo Creed is undecided. I will say, this poll is rough for Harris in Pennsylvania; Scranton’s Dwight Schrute (The Office) is also firm Trump and Michael Scott is undecided.
Frasier Crane (Cheers, Frasier) is actually seen as generally split if only slightly leaning Trump; the Republican Party shedding all of its Frasiers has been the single most significant realignment within right-of-center media in the past ten years. That said, by his nature Frasier would rather be dead than live in a swing state, and so as a result his political shift matters only to his Substack followers.
Walter White (Breaking Bad) on paper looks like the textbook example of a Romney-Clinton Democrat, given his high levels of postgraduate education and career as a public school teacher in the Albequerque suburbs, which are unmistakable Harris-leaner traits. Then you remember that show is about him becoming an affluent business owner in pharmaceutical sales who has incredibly strong views about crime near the border, so him being seen as breaking for Trump tends to make a bit more sense.
The late, great, Hannibal Lecter will indeed be voting for Trump.
Now things get interesting, though. Scarlett O’Hara (Gone With The Wind), a white woman from the Atlanta suburbs, has recently been a major target for Democrats; the fact that 36 percent said she’s for Harris and 35 percent said she’s for Trump is, if anything, the very story of this election.
If anything, this poll illustrates not just where people stand apart, but who we perceive to be the center. When one analyzes this data, it becomes clear who is the last voter standing, the person that parties have been relentlessly chasing for these final weeks, trying to move past the point of indecision, and ever so reluctant to take a stand and profess their values, to pick a side.
I speak, naturally, of George Costanza, median voter, who this poll reveals is the man who will be deciding the 2024 presidential election. God help us all.
Thanks to YouGov for giving us the scoop on this one. Let me know what you think about this format, just reply to the email.
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i don't think there's any way Hank Hill would vote for Trump, fwiw
George Costanza would, of course, know who he thinks should be president and recognize he should vote for the opposite candidate